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中國農業化肥投入效率空間差異及動態變遷
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國家自然科學基金項目“合作社農產品質量治理:基于成員層面的理論與實證研究”(71773044);江蘇省“六大人才高峰”項目“二次孵化視角下戰略性新興產業與農業耦合協調發展研究”(JY-027)。


Spatial Difference and Dynamic Change of Agricultural Fertilizer Input Efficiency in China
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    摘要:

    在構建化肥消費需求模型的基礎上,使用三種隨機前沿分析模型對1998-2017年中國農業化肥投入效率進行了測算,并運用面板數據狀態轉換分析法對化肥投入效率的動態變遷趨勢進行了預測。研究發現:中國農業化肥投入效率平均約為0.65,存在較大的提升潛力,且效率均值呈現中部高于東部、東部高于西部的非均衡分布格局;在化肥投入效率損失的構成上,短期效率損失較低,持久效率損失較高,表明持久效率損失是中國農業化肥投入效率總體偏低的主要根源;從化肥投入效率的變化趨勢及效率狀態的轉換概率來看,中國農業化肥投入效率并沒有呈現改善的跡象,效率損失具有非常強的黏性特征。因此,提升中國農業化肥投入效率的制度設計應該從長遠著手,切實采取針對性措施降低持久性的化肥投入效率損失。

    Abstract:

    Based on the construction of fertilizer consumption demand model,this paper uses three stochastic frontier analysis models to calculate the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China from 1998 to 2017,and forecasts the dynamic change trend of fertilizer input efficiency by using the panel data multi-state model.It is found that the average fertilizer input efficiency in China was 0.65,which shows great potential for improvement.Moreover,the efficiency was higher in the central part than in the eastern part and higher in the eastern part than in the western part,which shows unbalanced distribution.There is no necessary relation between fertilizer input efficiency and fertilizer intensity.In terms of the composition of fertilizer input efficiency loss,the short-term efficiency loss is relatively low and the long-term efficiency loss is relatively high,which is the main cause of the overall low input efficiency of agricultural fertilizer in China.The irrational phenomenon of fertilizer input in agricultural production in China causes a lot of efficiency loss and input waste.The efficiency of fertilizer input shows no improvement in terms of the time trend of efficiency change and the conversion probability of efficiency state,and the efficiency loss is characterized by strong viscosity.Therefore,to improve the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China,the system design should focus on the long term,such as implementing the input efficiency control of chemical fertilizer,promoting the product quality upgrade of chemical fertilizer industry,and changing the traditional fertilization of farmers.

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蔡 榮,陶素敏.中國農業化肥投入效率空間差異及動態變遷[J].華中農業大學學報(社科),2020,(06):57-66

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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-11-11
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